The big news Feb. 25, as The Washington Post put it, was that the Senate easily passed a $15 billion jobs bill. Some outlets were even calling it a “bipartisan” bill, given that 13 Repubs joined 57 Dems to pass the measure 70-28.

Just shows to go ya–how some pols will vote differently, once the threat of a filibuster is removed (as we discussed here and in Part I of  a two-part piece on the “stealth filibuster”). In fact, the jobs bill might have been scuttled–or “shelved”–had not newly-seated Scott Brown (R-MA) and four other Republican Senators voted against a filibuster on Feb. 23: even with those five votes, the filibuster was avoided by only two votes, clearing that hurdle 62-30 (60 votes are required).

Filibuster affects voting strategy

Yet, when the jobs measure itself came to a vote, eight more Republicans crossed the aisle, which sent it back to the House, where a much larger jobs measure had passed in December.  Also from The Washington Post: “The House voted 217 to 201 to approve a $15 billion measure that would give tax breaks to companies for hiring new employees. Six Republicans joined the vast majority of Democrats in supporting the bill, which also includes a one-year reauthorization of the law governing federal highway funding, as well as an expansion of the Build America Bonds program and a provision allowing companies to write off equipment purchases.”

Unfortunately, the measure (which still must clear the Senate again, due to House revisions) is not expected to have a major impact on unemployment and almost certainly will not help consumers who right-now-today are staring at foreclosure or bankruptcy.

‘Stop calling this a jobs bill’

Among the pols who voiced disappointment by the 10-fold reduction, a shared sentiment immediately following the Senate vote seemed to be to drop the euphemism “jobs bill” –that is, to simply concede that it’s a tax-credit bill that might indirectly spur businesses to hire people who have been out of work more than 60 days.

For example, quoted in the “Political Blotter” at ContraCostaTimes.com, Congressional Black Caucus Chairwoman Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) said, ““When presented with a powerful opportunity to create jobs and address the growing unemployment rates among the chronically unemployed, the Senate responded with a whimper. A ‘go slow’, piecemeal approach will do little to address our nation’s need for employment.

“It is critical that policy solutions include not only small business relief but worker training, the use of existing federal programs and targeted job creation to those communities with the highest rates and longest history of unemployment. Until the needs of the chronically unemployed are met, we implore leadership to stop calling this ‘the jobs bill.’ ”

Despite her confusing syntax, we get Ms. Lee’s point: seems like a “jobs bill” should, in fact, create jobs.

Although some tiny gains are trickling, the national jobs picture remains grim.

Job losses, job gains

One Wall Street Journal blog is reporting “a sign the job market is inching toward recovery [because] 31 states added jobs in the first month of the year.”

Using Labor Department data regarding  the official unemployment rate, the piece continues: “In January, the overall U.S. unemployment rate fell to 9.7% from 10% a month earlier, while the nation’s economy shed 26,000 jobs. The job losses continued in February amid strong weather effects, but the jobless rate remained at 9.7%.” (By the way, that blog also has jobless rates for each state.)

But remember, the “official rate” is not the real rate, which includes those who have given up looking for work as well as those who can’t find full time work. That rate, the “total unemployment” rate, peaked at 17.4 per cent in October 2009. Sometimes referred to as the “U-6″ category, this rate is important for two reasons. First, of course, it shows the number of U.S. unemployed is actually closer to 20 per cent than it is to 10 per cent. Why the media continues to buy in to the Labor Department’s lower number–the “U-3 category, now at 9.7 per cent and holding–is simply confounding.

Second, the U-6 category is telling in that gains in the  U-3 category should parallel gains in the U-6–but that isn’t happening. As pointed out in another WSJ blog: “The U.S. jobless rate was unchanged at 9.7% in February, following a decline the previous month, but the government’s broader measure of unemployment ticked up 0.3 percentage point to 16.8%.”

So what’s that mean? Well, here’s the conclusion from that piece: “A U-6 figure that converges toward the official rate could indicate improving confidence in the labor market and the overall economy. This month pushes convergence even further away.”

Unemployment extension passes ‘no debate” hurdle in Senate

the Senate. A larger measure, described today in The  Washington Post, moved forward when eight Repubs joined 58 Dems to limit debate: “The bill includes one-year extensions of unemployment insurance and COBRA health benefits, as well as money to help states pay for Medicaid and private pension funds that have taken a big hit during the recession.”
According to the Post, how the House is expected to act on the larger measure is not known.

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Introduction to Chapter 7

Introduction to Chapter 13

In his most public acknowledgment of the true depths of unemployment, President Obama today said in a speech to the Brookings Institution that  he wants to use unexpected fiscal headroom in recovery-stimulus funds to create jobs.

As reported by CNN Obama said “he wants to give small businesses tax breaks for new hires and equipment purchases. He also wants to expand American Recovery and Reinvestment Act programs and spend some $50 billion more on roads, bridges, aviation and water projects.

“Obama did not give a price tag for his proposals but pointed out that there is more wiggle room in the federal budget since the 2008 financial system bailout program will cost $200 billion less than expected.”

Perhaps to be expected, some top Republicans are resistant to the idea–remember, it was the Senate where the bankruptcy “cram-down” provisions stalled after intense lobbying by the lending industry–saying any extra room in the recovery-stimulus funds should go toward the national deficit. To that, Obama responded, “”There are those who claim we have to choose between paying down our deficits on the one hand, and investing in job creation and economic growth on the other–but this is a false choice.”

The timing could not be better–with all the gushing over the November jobs data, you’d think the jobless crisis has passed.

But, no, until major change takes hold, it’s still a matter of the same ol’, same ol’: We’ve merely been shedding jobs more slowly than we were.

But you wouldn’t know it by following  the mainstream media; here’s how The New York Times reported the data on December 5: “In the strongest jobs report since the recession began two years ago, the nation’s employers all but stopped shedding jobs in November, the government reported on Friday, and they appeared to be on the verge of finally rebuilding the work force.

“The sudden and unexpected improvement surprised even the most optimistic forecasters. Instead of yet another six-figure job loss, only 11,000 jobs disappeared last month and instead of another rise in the unemployment rate, it went down, to 10 percent from 10.2 percent in October.”

Of course, it is nice that the nation’s job loss is slowing down.

The bad news is that “official” unemployment’s going to 10 percent really means the “total” unemployment rate is 17.2 percent.

Yup, as it turns out, when unemployment was reported to have reached double-digits, at 10.2 percent, that figure applied only to out-of-work folks who are actively looking for jobs.

As explained December 1 at MoneyNews.com, ” It’s bad enough that the official unemployment rate hit a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October.

“But if you count people who have given up looking for a job – those who are really the most unemployed – and those who are working fewer hours than they would like, the jobless rate registers 17.5 percent.”

“That’s a record since the government began tabulating the statistic in 1994.”

This all comes from a table maintained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, right there in row “U-6,” in two data sets, four columns each, showing the grim rise, in data “Not seasonaly adjusted,” and four more columns of data that has been “seasonally adjusted,” the numerals just sort of laying there like shameful secrets in an unlocked but forgotten diary–row U-6 which is labeled, “Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.”

There it is, with one row of seasonally adjusted data (mislabeled as “Nov. 2008,” when it should be “Oct. 2008″), when total unemployment was 12.2 percent, having risen to 12.6 percent a month later. By Oct. 2009, it was 16.3 percent and by last month, up again to 16.4 percent.

The seasonally adjusted data look even worse, rising monthly from July through October: 16.3, 16.8, 17.0, to 17.5 percent; then it fell in Novemeber to 17.2 percent.

Perhaps the best signal of all was discussed in another piece from The Times, a December 4 “Economy” post that discusses an un-named indicator that “is part of the monthly survey done by the Institute for Supply Management, in which manufacturing companies are asked if their business is getting better or worse.”

Described as having proven “reliable in all 10 previous recessions since World War II,” the indicator is part of the I.S.M.’s “November results, showing that for the fourth consecutive month, more companies thought business was getting better than believed it was getting worse.

“A part of that survey asks whether companies are adding or subtracting workers. It showed more companies hiring than firing in both October and November,” so if “the I.S.M. indicator is right, that means that the 10.2 percent rate in October was the cyclical high.”

So that is good, right? Finally a drop in the rate…whew.

Still it’s staggering to learn that instead of the improvement from 10.2 to 10 percent, in fact total unemployment is actually closer to 20 percent…

Some newspapers have caught onto this, but don’t seem to be bothered, as evidenced by the many headlines like this one in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, by two AP reporters:  “Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism.” From there, it’s pretty much the same info that The Times’ would detail the next day.

For some, the route to a new job may very well entail a move to a different part of the country, as some areas, in various sectors, are coming back more quickly than others. At cnbc.com, you can watch a slideshow of the “Best U.S. Cities to Find a Job,” which not only lists the metro area but also includes the best sectors for each city.

For job stability, it looks like automobile repo work may be doing OK.  According to a December 7 Daily Finance report, “The ratio of U.S. auto loan borrowers who were 60 or more days past due on their payments increased in the third quarter over the second quarter from from 0.73% to 0.81%, according to Trans Union. The year-over-year delinquency rate at the national level increased by 1.25% in the third quarter.”

Although TransUnion expects the default rate to continue rising–projecting 0.9 percent by end of the year–to a 7.5 percent increase over the past year,  some data suggest that seeing a silver lining even here is warranted.

“Peter Turek, automotive vice president in TransUnion’s financial services group, believes the increased delinquency rate is indicative of a cyclical pattern. The good news is that seven states experienced a drop in their quarter-to-quarter delinquency rates while 22 showed a drop on a year-over-year basis. ‘The drop in delinquency is an indicator that some states could emerge from the recession sooner than others,’ Turek said in a statement released with the report.”

What it really sounds like is that the hard hit areas have been really, really hit hard, because nearly half the states have shown improvement: “So essentially, the market is shifting back to a pattern dependent on local economic conditions, with some states faring better than others. At least with 22 states seeing a drop in delinquencies over last year we can see there is some economic improvement in almost half the states.”

Still, the most encouraging sign amid all the bad news/good news is Obama’s public recognition: “Even though we have reduced the deluge of job losses to a relative trickle, we are not yet creating jobs at a pace to help all those families who have been swept up in the flood,” Obama said. “And it speaks to an urgent need to accelerate job growth in the short term while laying a new foundation for lasting economic growth.”

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